Q. Could you just start by giving an overview of the current situation in Iraq?
A. What we are seeing now is a situation in which the country is completely out of control. There is continuing violence, on a very large scale, with a steady transition to major sectarian conflict, possibly leading to civil war. As we approach the third anniversary of the start of the war what is clear is that there is no end in sight. Yet the United States does intend to stay in Iraq for the foreseeable future, which does suggest that we are in for several more years of conflict at the very least.

Q. What sort of preparations are the American making for a long term stay in the region and what about recent reports of plans to scale down the number of troops in Iraq.
A. There are two issues here. There are very clear indications that the Americans are building bases intended for very long term use. Essentially four of them are permanent bases plus some other sites as well. At the same time because of the politics in the United States, and the up coming elections in November, the Bush administration would like to be seen to be reducing troop numbers. So they may well attempt to bring out maybe 10 to 20, 000 troops by early autumn, although that will depend on the level of violence within Iraq.

Q. Will this change the military strategy if the troop numbers are reduced?
A. One of the things that is already happening is the tendency to use air strikes more widely in tackling the insurgence. The rate at which heavy fire power is being used is about five times higher than it was a year ago. This may reduce the number of troop patrols and casualties but it has the huge probability of increasing civilian casualties, making the Americans even more deeply unpopular. But that does appear to be the strategy now.

Q. Is there a link between the increase in civilian casualties and an increase in support for the insurgency?
A. One of the things that has helped the insurgency the most has been the high levels in civilian casualties, often due to American action. So civilian casualties, which are now running at well over 30,000 killed in the last three years, certainly do add to the anti-American feeling that you have in Iraq.

Q. British and American forces are often given a passive if not absent role in news reports of the violence in Iraq. To what extent are they responsible for the violence there?
A. Well in overall terms the violence has been a consequence of the invasion and occupation so in that sense they are certainly responsible. As far as the ongoing violence at present it is still the case that a very large proportion of attacks are directed against the American and British troops. What tends to be reported is the big car bombs in and around Baghdad and other central cities. What is far less reported is the occurrence of many attacks every day against American patrols and other bases. So one does get a rather false picture if you are just relying on the general media.

Q. There are often reports of insurgent car bombs apparently aimed at killing civilians but you are suggesting that civilians are not the targets of the majority of insurgents.
A. It's difficult to say exactly who the majority are but certainly most of the attacks are against the Iraqi police and security forces and also against economic structure. There are ongoing attacks against the oil network which has hugely limited the reconstruction of the country and have weakened the government - that of course is the intention. But as far as attacks on people is concerned it is very common that the major targets are the military forces and the Iraqi police.

Q. It was reported in January last year that the pentagon was seriously discussing recruiting and training death squads in Iraq to help fight the insurgence. To what extent are death squads operating in Iraq now and are the American forces connected to them in any way?
A. There are certainly clear indications that death squads are operating out of the interior ministry and there is a degree of official sanction by the Iraqi government. Whether the Americans are directly involved is more difficult to say but what is clear is that if there is a civil war they will, by in large, be more supportive of the Shia majority. There is not a clear cut known connection between the Americans and these death squads, although many analysts believe that there is at least an informal connection.