In his 2005 State of the Union Address, President Bush elected Egypt as the standard bearer of his liberal democratic vision for the Arab World. "The great and proud nation of Egypt, which showed the way toward peace in the Middle East, can now show the way toward democracy in the Middle East", Bush declared.

For a time, Egypt appeared to fulfil its American-appointed role. A referendum on the Egyptian constitution was held, and political pluralism seemed to be, superficially at least, the order of the day.

Recent events however, presage a premature death for the democratic dream. As a government clampdown threatens to suffocate reformist tendencies, the backlash against multi-party politics in the region's largest country does not bode well for Washington's democratic experiment.

Since the 1981 assassination of Anwar Sadat, Egypt has been governed by President Hosni Mubarak, leader of the National Democratic Party. An assessment of Mubarak's record on democratic rule reveals vast room for improvement. In 1987, 1993, and 1999, Mubarak was re-elected with majority votes. However, these victories were achieved under an Egyptian Constitution which prohibited multi-candidate presidential elections, and bequeathed the task of electing a leader of the Republic to the People's Assembly, Egypt's 'rubber stamp' parliament.

In 2005, the authoritarian tide of Egyptian politics appeared to experience something of a sea-change. On February 26. Mubarak initiated a constitutional amendment to allow multi-candidate presidential elections by September 2005. In a televised address, the President asserted that this change stemmed from his "conviction of the need to consolidate efforts for more freedom and democracy".

Further apparent moves towards democratic government occurred in the guise of phased parliamentary elections. Record numbers of opposition MPs were elected, and the process was hailed as a significant turning point by the state-controlled media. "The wheel of democracy has been set in motion by President Mubarak's historic initiative and has gained fertile ground", an editorial in Egypt's Al-Jumhuriya proclaimed.

Yet beneath this manufactured optimism, the constitutional reform process remained limited. Presidential election candidates were forced to meet strict criteria for participation, and the voter registration drive was halted just before the announcement of the first multi-candidate race. Of a population of 75 million people, only 32 million were registered eligible to vote.

Furthermore, religious political parties, including the popular Muslim Brotherhood, were banned and their supporters oppressed. According to the Amnesty International Report 2005, "thousands of suspected supporters of banned Islamist groups, including possible prisoners of conscience, remained in detention without charge or trial; some had been held for years".

In recent months, regime inertia appears to have morphed into a virulent backlash against political pluralism. Local elections, due in April, have been postponed until 2006, and on May 18. an Egyptian court upheld the five year sentence against Ayman Nour, the opposition leader jailed for fraud. The decision was condemned by US State Department spokesman, Sean McCormack as a "miscarriage of justice by international standards, and a setback for the democratic aspirations of the Egyptian people".

Egypt's tentative experiment with freedom of speech- Mubarak allowed his opponents to criticise him during the 2005 presidential campaign- has also received a serious blow. The pro-reform blogger, Alaa Seif al-Islam was detained for six weeks and charged with insulting the President.

Moreover, on May 25. government security agents severely beat pro-democracy activists, Karim al-Sha'r and Mohammed al-Sharqawi. The attacks were criticised by Joe Stork, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa division of Human Rights Watch, "President Mubarak should put a stop to repeated outrages by agents of the state", he said.

Mubarak's brief dalliance with democracy has created political space for increasingly prominent radical Islamist groups. In the 2005 parliamentary elections, the Muslim Brotherhood emerged as the largest opposition bloc with 88 MPs who stood as independent candidates.

Founded in Egypt in 1928, the Muslim Brotherhood advocates the establishment of Islamic government. The goal, according to the movement's founder, Hassan al-Banna was the "doctrine of reclaiming Islam's manifest destiny; an empire, founded in the seventh century, that stretched from Spain to Indonesia". The recent increase in Brotherhood popularity has profoundly disturbed the Mubarak regime, and accelerated the current reversion to draconian measures.

Consternation over the Brotherhood's ascendancy within Egypt has been heightened by developments elsewhere in the Middle East. Hamas' capture of 56 percent of the vote in the January 2006 legislative elections is symptomatic of a broader regional elevation of Islamists to political power. Legal Islamist parties now exist in Jordon, and in Morrocco, the Parti de la Justice et tu Development, stands as favourite for the 2007 legislative elections.

As regime inertia continues to stifle the impetus to reform, many fear that Egypt's democratic spring will never achieve full bloom. Ironically, the success of Islamist groups elsewhere may prove to be the achilles heel of Egyptian democracy.

The election of a Hamas government which refuses to recognise Israel, has made Palestine the focus of Washington's democratic experiment. The 1988 Hamas Covenant states, "There is no solution to the Palestinian question except through jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time and a vain endeavour". Whilst deep divisions exist between hardliners such as the exiled leader Khalid Marshal, and Hamas ministers in the Palestinian territories, the government's refusal to rennounce violence, has made it a slippery diplomatic customer.

As western powers continue to struggle with Hamas, the Mubarak government have emerged as unlikely beneficaries. US pressure, the main impetus behind the 2005 reforms, is focused on the seeming paradox of a democratically elected, 'terrorist'government. Under the current status quo, the Egpytian regime, a long-standing recipient of lucrative US economic and military aid package, will feel little reforming pressure from its American sponsors.