In 2007, general elections in Nigeria will democratically establish a new Presidency, National Assembly, State Governments and State Assemblies. Clifford Thomas, our Correspondent in Nigeria, examines the issues ahead of the elections.

As Nigeria approaches its general elections year, defined by her Electoral Act to be 2007, the build-up presents challenges that threaten the existence of corporate democracy in the country.

Fourteen months to inauguration of a new Presidency going by statutory provisions, unfolding events are fast eclipsing that hope. The unpopular attempt to amend Sections 147 and 192 of the 1999 Constitution, and elongate tenures of the serving president and governors, constitute a serious threat to democracy, and the corporate existence of Nigeria.

Before the argument of whether the Nigerian president should be given a third term or not surfaced, there were other thorny issues that threatened the nation's existence. These include sharia (state religion), rising incidence of ethnic militiamen, corruption, terrorism, State-sponsored killings, armed robbery, and growing agitation in the oil-rich Niger Delta region.

The frenetic pace of events requires hourly analysis. Actors on both sides of the divide are using these events to distract attention from the major issues at hand.

Nigeria entered this state of mourning in 1999 when the government of President Olusegun Obasanjo came into existence. The Nigerian Army, sponsored by the state, committed lootings, killings, rape, arson and other atrocities, on the orders of President Obasanjo, against Nigerian citizens in Odi (Bayelsa State), Zaki Biam (Benue State).Other repressive actions of the armed forces and police towards citizens, forced people into gun running.

Gun-running has become a growing enterprise in the midst of hunger, extreme poverty, unemployment, a rising HIV/AIDS profile, corruption and a breakdown in infrastructure. There are assurances however, that armed struggle will come as a last resort if President Obasanjo refuses to leave office by May 2007.

It is widely believed that the President's ambition is an assault on both the psyche of Nigerians and the friends of Nigeria. It is also believed that the move reduces the growing goodwill Mr. Obasanjo has gathered over the years for himself, Nigeria and Africa. The growing tensions find expression in the solidarity of the political class mobilizing the Nigerian masses, and the open bravery of the people of the Niger Delta to force the halting of oil production in the region.

Disruption of oil production by indigenes of the Niger Delta through the blowing up of oil installations, making the entire region unsafe for oil and gas exploitation activities, has had its attendant global impact. The region is very unsafe for oil company staff and operations.

President Obasanjo whose claims to fight corruption, were applauded initially, has been accused of using financial crime busting agencies - the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC), to attack those vocal voices against his tenure elongation. There are reported cases of frame ups and arm-twisting antics to cow those opposed to anti-democratic manipulations in the polity.

Aside from armed robbery, which has become a growing industry, especially for the increasing army of unemployed youths who are mostly jobless graduates; armed banditry and financial crimes run into billions of U.S dollars annually, have become another manifestation of the implications of President Obasanjo's corrupt leadership. The country is generally unsafe. In military barracks and crowded areas, bombs detonate without warnings. The military is even afraid of the militants.

Niger Delta youths who describe themselves as "freedom fighters" are capitalizing on President Obasanjo's unpopular and inordinate ambition to win both local and international support. This is especially so because, impeccable sources have it that the militants will be willing to sell the oil only to countries that support their bid for either greater control of their resources, or self determination.

Though Nigeria's president has dangled an olive branch of "concessions" to the region, including an investment of twenty trillion Naria to develop the area spending a whooping Twenty trillion Naira to develop the area, activists doubt the President's sincerity. This investment would create 20,000 new jobs for youths and build a motor way project that will link all the States in the region. People from the region want the president to vacate office in May 2007, so that another president can discuss their future with them, on grounds of respect.

The growing synergy of opposition to the tenure elongation proposition goes beyond the Niger Delta region. Recently, during a state visit to one of the northern states, it was widely reported that the president's convoy was pelted with stones when he did a stop-over in another state. There have been wide -spread protests in most states of the federation against tenure elongation.

Established reports have it that while some members of the National Assembly were bribed to support the bid, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) commenced the process of delisting members who oppose it. The serving Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar, some governors, National Assembly members and several others, are victims of this directive.

Some weeks back, John Negroponte, America's intelligence Chief informed a Senate Committee that if President Obasanjo wins a third term, it could create chaos which will eventually "lead to disruption of oil supply, secessionist moves by regional governments, major refugee flows, and instability elsewhere in West Africa".

This might sound alarmist, but the reality on ground suggests that the report appears to be a good job in diplomacy; not stressing the naked truth. The consequences, will over stretch the absorptive capacity of the international community to contain the ensuing crises.

As the pangs of labour for change are delayed by an unreasonable proposition to shift the Expected Date of Delivery (EDD) from May 29, 2007 to May 2011, the pregnancy stands the risk of either a forceful evacuation, or still birth. And in both cases, the adult foetus will not only be wasted, but the expectant mother runs the risk of death.

Some activists, opposed to an extension of tenure under any guise, insisting that though the labour pangs of midwifing a child-in this case, a successful transition from a "transitional democracy to real democracy in May 2007" is quite normal and expected, they are ready to "induce delivery by available legal means accepted by international convention and best practice".

With the silence-induced acceptance of the leading role played by the U.S. in the International Community, especially in promoting democratic practices globally, her position on the matter was sought for by both proponents and antagonists of the issue.

The United States Embassy in Nigeria made its position public, ostensibly, reflecting the position of the home government, on Sunday 30th of April, 2004 in Abuja.

"Our view is very clear that executive term limits should be respected, in the interests of institutionalizing democracy and opening political space. This allows for new leaders to be groomed, and it supports the rule of law. A regular turnover of power ingrains and institutionalizes a democratic process. We have consistently delivered this message to a number of countries facing the same issue. We understand that President Obasanjo has not made any formal announcement of his plans after his second term expires in 2007".

The pro-third Term camp must be very sad now. The U.S Embassy position, which most other countries have quietly adopted, has however, not stopped those working hard to change the wisdom of smooth transition in a democracy. Thus, increasing the pains, and the possibility of stillbirth, while endangering the entity.

As the complexities expand in scope, taking on additional variables that further confuses the process, succour is required in getting the President to, make a commitment to democracy, by publicly rejecting calls for him to stay beyond May 29, 2007. He was once celebrated a hero for handing over to an elected civilian government. Will he now allow Nigerians to chase him out of power as a 70 year old fugitive, who might be made to stand trial for master-minding the perpetuation of in-human conditions on over one hundred and sixty million Nigerians?

By May 2007, knowledge would have increased with records of the Nigerian experiences. Libraries will swell with new documents. Archives with more "for the records" literatures, and more scholars and experts on Nigeria, will have gained prominence.